Truck and bus tire data hides key signals!

After a rebound in the commercial sector in 2024, with double-digit growth in truck/bus tire shipments in the U.S. and Canada, the market looks muted in 2025.

While the trucking industry appears to have reason for optimism as it appears to have escaped a two-year recession, the unknown impact of U.S. import tariffs on the tire industry and the economy as a whole has commercial tire dealers mired in uncharted waters.

Truckers too optimistic

According to the American Trucking Associations (ATA), trucks hauled 11.3 billion tons of freight in 2024, up less than 1% from 2023, when tonnage reached its lowest level since 2020. But the industry group sees brighter prospects.

In its latest market snapshot, the ATA noted that U.S. trucking activity “surged” 3% in February after a slight 0.1% decline in January. “This result is very consistent with the growing optimism we are seeing in the truck freight market after two years of recession,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said in the report.

Costello said some of the gains in February were caused by shippers rushing to get product into the U.S. before tariffs took effect, but there are signs that “a freight rate recovery has indeed begun.” Is that really the case?

Latest Commercial Forecast for Truck and Bus Tires

The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) predicts minimal growth in the commercial sector this year. The national trade association for U.S. tire manufacturers predicts that aftermarket shipments of medium-duty truck/bus tires will reach 23.6 million units in 2025, an increase of just 0.8%. This will follow a rise in replacement shipments in 2024, which are expected to increase 5.9%, but increase 12.6% to 23.4 million units.

This year marks a welcome rebound from 2023, when shipments fell 22%, according to USTMA. Truck/bus retread production is down single digits in 2024 from 2023, but the retread industry still accounts for more than 15 million units, according to estimates from the Tire Retread and Repair Information Bureau. In Canada, replacement shipments of medium-duty truck/bus tires are expected to rise 16.5% to 1.75 million in 2024, after falling 25% the year before, according to the Tire and Rubber Association of Canada (TRAC).

The trade group does not issue a forecast. Last year, U.S. companies imported more than 18.9 million truck/bus tires, up 9.1%. As imports grew, U.S. medium-duty truck/bus tire production fell 4.2% to 11.9 million units, and U.S. exports fell 5.4% to 1.8 million units.

What about light truck tires?

As for light truck tires, replacement tire shipments in the U.S. are expected to rise 1% to 37.1 million units this year. U.S. shipments rise 7.3% to 36.7 million units in 2024, and Canadian aftermarket shipments rise 4% to 3.1 million units.

U.S. light truck tire imports rise 25.2% to 39.3 million units in 2024, while domestic production falls less than 1% to 23.2 million units. U.S. tire exports rise 6% to 4.1 million units.

Tariff warning, changing market

USTMA released its forecast in early March, when President Trump unveiled his sweeping import tariff package, which is still evolving. Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on cars and light trucks, which will apply to components, including passenger car and light truck tires, by May 3.

Those tariffs may also apply to medium truck tires, but affected parties remain uncertain about that. Currently, all other types of tires are subject to a 10% tariff.

Trump announced high reciprocal tariffs on major truck/bus tire producers Thailand (36%), Vietnam (46%), and Japan (24%) on April 2, but suspended them for 90 days a few days later in lieu of a 10% base tariff. Whether negotiations during the suspension will reduce the tariffs remains to be seen, as does the impact of the tariffs on the import-reliant tire industry and the economy as a whole.

Commercial dealers and retreaders who responded to the Tire Business Annual Survey said their main concerns include low-cost imported tires, inflation, and market uncertainty, including tariffs.

While the trucking industry seems to have reason to be optimistic as it appears to have escaped a two-year recession, the unknown impact of U.S. import tariffs on the tire industry and the economy as a whole has put commercial tire dealers in uncharted waters. This is the overseas truck and bus tire market forecast, what about the domestic one? I'm afraid it's even less optimistic!