By Sreeram Chaulia2015 The beginning of the 2000s was not much of a celebration for stock and treasury markets around the world. Disappointing GDP growth figures from major nerve centers stabilized and a new normal of unexpected volatility threw everyone into crisis. The widespread fear triggered by the onset of the global economic crisis in 2008 is now part of the DNA of the global economy.

Sharp investors may have a keen eye on 2015 Some products, securities, industries or countries are optimistic about the year, but the overall picture is one of caution about the system. The season of giving thanks for small favors is upon us. The heat of the past six months has reached a new depth as the New Year approaches. If the price of a barrel of crude oil rises to $54 from $114 last June, it is bound to have a major impact on all prospects. This is because the Chinese call this year the unfortunate “Year of the Sheep”, with low levels of dependence and low levels of self-reliance. While oil is the commodity most affected by the negative impact on value, it will take time for the positive to penetrate and be cheered. This is because the value of the assets they hold is declining, and there is uncertainty about when prices will bottom out.

Wake-Up Call

The New Year will be marked by even greater tragedy for oil-producing countries, some of which are already in the grip of recession. Oil prices are currently at record lows due to capital outflows from a number of oil-producing countries as a result of oversupply in the U.S. shale oil market, declining demand from major consuming countries such as China, and OPEC’s dispute over maintaining market share. Macroeconomic indicators are well above the risk line.

2015 will be a year of life and death for the profit-eating countries. Instead of relying on minerals, they will rely on the development of single-commodity-dependent economies across all sectors to achieve a strong and broad GDP and export base. Russian President Vladimir Putin also acknowledged in his State of the Nation Address in December 2014 that “for the past 200 years, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has failed to realize his plans and goals for economic diversification. The current crisis, he said, “offers Venezuela a golden opportunity to change its economic model”.

History shows that few single-product economies, with the exception of Mexico and Malaysia, have successfully diversified over time. The reasons for this failure are clear. The low-skilled labor required for non-oil industrial growth, vested interests associated with the network of political patronage that keeps fossil fuels dominant, and a lack of infrastructure for alternative industries to take off. In 2015, all struggling oil-exporting countries will have to make tough choices and implement structural reforms. Otherwise, we will repeat Beckett’s “Waiting for Godot” mistake and wonder when global oil demand will return to its peak.

Is there an international political conspiracy behind the oil price crash? Iran, Venezuela and Russia all believe so, and claim that the US and Saudi Arabia are conspiring to pressure them, just as they did in the late 1980s to cause the Soviet Union to collapse. However, some argue that the reason for the current downturn in the oil industry is not coordination, but competition for market share between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. In any case, oil pumpers must find a new lifeline to save themselves.

New Lifelines Needed

Will 2015 pay dividends for oil-consuming countries by lowering import costs, curbing fiscal deficits, increasing foreign exchange reserves and boosting consumer spending? It bodes well, at least for these countries. Nomura Securities says a $40 drop in oil prices could lead to a 0.4% increase in India’s GDPPP. But Asia’s three largest economies-India, China and Japan-must not rely on unpredictable windfalls and have a responsibility to implement policy changes to curb their respective slowdowns.

It has strong political leadership and enormous influence. This mandate (Japan’s prime minister could easily win re-election) is an advantage for Asian economies, but one that could be eroded if they don’t aggressively respond to the bull market and implement painful but necessary restructuring to resist entrenched blackmail tactics. Lobbying group.

Among OECD countries, Europe is sick and stagnant from repeated abuses of austerity, while the United States is touted as the healthiest new growth engine. But the so-called U.S. recovery is supported by another adventure boom in the financial sector.

The Financial Stability Board’s recent warning about the resurgence of the shadow banking system and the U.S. Congress’s 2014 Congressional Year 12 Wall Street’s decision to lock taxpayers into derivatives trading suggests another meltdown. In the new year, the world’s collective resolve should be to learn from the catastrophic mistakes of the past.

The writer is professor and dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs.

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