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Low crude oil and other commodity prices globally to bring respite to Narendra Modi government

 LynnCroft
  38
 May 31, 2024

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(This article was originally published on October 18, 2014) In recent months, a prolonged bull market has led to a collapse in global commodity prices and a regular widening of account and fiscal deficits, which, along with rising subsidies and a depreciating rupee, have hurt India. Now all this is reversing. Petrol prices have fallen to their lowest level in 16 months, edible oil and rubber prices to their lowest levels in five years. Sugar and cotton are also falling. This bodes well for low inflation.

Why are oil prices falling?

Surging supply and weak demand outlook

Shale oil production surges

OPEC shows no signs of cutting production

Saudi Arabia is unwilling to bear the burden. Production rose 0.5% to 9.65 million bpd in September.

IEA cuts global energy demand forecast for fourth straight month

IMF cuts global growth forecast

pHas oil bottomed out?

Bank of America and BNP Paribas say oil prices will stay above $80 a barrel.

Despite analysts’ disagreement, oil prices rose to $87 on Friday.

Oil prices below $80 could make some shale fields unviable

Saudi Arabia may allow oil prices to fall to hit some suppliers.

If OPEC doesn’t cut production, oil prices could fall further.

OPEC 40% only supplies 40% of the world’s oil.

What could make oil prices rise again?

Recovering growth in Eurasia, OPEC production cuts, and supply disruptions exacerbated by unrest in the Middle East

Will oil affect other commodities?

It will affect sugar. At low oil prices, more cane is used for sugar production as ethanol becomes unattractive.

Reflects weak economic growth, affecting other products

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