New Delhi: The recent joint announcement by Honda and Nissan to explore working together marks yet another step forward in the consolidation of Japan’s auto industry. According to industry sources, it is a clear acknowledgement of today’s global realities where the Chinese are forging ahead in the electric vehicle arena. “Japan has been a laggard in comparison and this move by Honda and Nissan to team up for electrification is proof of this fact,” says an auto sector official. In his view, forming deep relationships is the only way out for automakers to stay afloat in this competitive era of manufacturing EVs, more so when they are up against a formidable opponent like China. The country has already signalled its intent to ship out its range to a host of countries in South America and ASEAN with Europe and the UK also on its radar. The killer combination of top- end features and an affordable price tag are enough to draw buyers from across the world to Chinese EVs. It is precisely for this reason that Europe is already under pressure from its carmakers to impose tariffs on EVs imported from China with the US likely to follow suit for Chinese car brands that could be shipped out from their facilities in Mexico. Japan vs. China In this backdrop, it is now getting increasingly apparent that Japan’s dominant position in the automobile industry is under even greater pressure thanks to the EV blitzkrieg emanating from China. Sure, Toyota continues to be the world’s largest carmaker but going solo is not the answer if it means standing up to the challenges of tomorrow. This also puts in context why Toyota has been at the forefront in sewingup some key alliances as part of the effort to stay ahead of the race. In2017, it announced a partnership with Suzuki Motor Corporation with aneye on India and other emerging markets like Africa and Latin America.Suzuki is the market leader in India and Toyota has not been able tomake much of a dent there except for one successful brand in the formof Innova. However, over the past six years since this alliance came into being, boththe companies have been collaborating on key areas like productdevelopment and ushering in cleaner fuel options for the Indian market.There could be some even bigger developments in the near future likeglobal products and other technological breakthroughs which will putthe Toyota-Suzuki partnership on a strong wicket. Toyota also has a stake in another Japanese brand, Mazda, where theidea is to grow in North America which is clearly among its mostimportant markets. Then there is Daihatsu, another Toyota groupcompany, whose prowess will be leveraged for the ASEAN region. Renault alliance In the case of Honda and Nissan, it is still not clear how this will pan outin terms of a strategic roadmap. The latter has had a strong partnershipof over two decades with Renault of France even while the structure haschanged in recent times with Nissan now having a greater say than in thepast. Honda had entered into an agreement with General Motors to produceelectric vehicles but the two called it off last October since it did notlook too viable. Perhaps this prompted the Japanese carmaker to joinhands with Nissan and, in the process, take the consolidation script inJapan to the next level. It perhaps needs to be mentioned here thatNissan also has a stake in Mitsubishi, acquired in 2016 when the latterwas literally down and out. Incidentally, there was a time when the Japanese automakers like Suzukiwere in global partnerships which were working quite well. The alliancewith GM, for instance, was coming along nicely till the two decided tocall it quits and the next big ticket brand Suzuki opted for wasVolkswagen where the script just went horribly wrong. The parting of ways was not pleasant and it was at this point in time thatToyota stepped into the picture. The alliance has had no glitches thus farand this is also owing to the fact that there is a greater level of culturalconvergence and mutual respect among Japanese companies. Case for unity Nissan and Renault also had a successful relationship even though it wasnot exactly on even terms. This is what raised the former’s hackles whichthen led to a series of dramatic developments starting with the arrest ofCarlos Ghosn, Chairman of Renault-Nissan, followed by more upheavalsat the leadership level and finally a restructuring of the alliance. With Honda now as its partner for EVs, there will be obvious questionson the relevance of the Renault partnership going forward. Will Hondaalso play a role here along with Mitsubishi? These are early days yet toseek answers but, from the viewpoint of Japan’s auto industry, thepragmatic solution is that in unity lies strength. A section of industry observers believes that the Japanese governmenthas been pushing for greater consolidation among its automakersfraternity since this is the only way to stand up now competitionemerging in the form of the Chinese. Even in the two-wheeler arena.Honda and Yamaha which were bitter foes for decades teamed up in 2016for joint development of 50cc scooters which is a niche segment inJapan. While this may not have seemed too significant, it still marked abeginning in building new bonds between two erstwhile rivals who hadlittle love lost for each other during the fierce days of the ‘H-Y war inthe early 1980s. Burying the hatchet The global CEO of Yamaha then, Hiroyuki Yanagi, had told this writerduring a visit to India, “All this happened over 30 years ago. That wasduring the old generation management but we represent a newgeneration that thinks differently” Apart from working together in the 50cc scooter space, the twocompanies were tipped to explore the possibility of collaborating inelectric motorcycles and in areas relating to range, charging time,performance and cost, Yanagi said electric bikes represented animportant mobility initiative for the future. “However, in the case of e-motorcycles, there are technologicaldifficulties compared to four-wheelers. We will try and make a goodalliance with Honda as each of us has some know-how in this space. If wecan put that together, there will be better technology in the process,” hesaid. Since then, nothing much has really come about in terms of joint productdevelopment from Honda and Yamaha but, as industry observers say,there is no telling what the future has in store. In any case, there isalready a two-wheeler battery consortium in Japan comprising Honda,Yamaha, Kawasaki and Suzuki which may well build up to somethingbigger globally.

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Smart technology such as autonomous parking systems and the wide availability of superfast battery charging infrastructure will drive a boom in electric vehicle (EV) sales in China over the next five years, according to two of the segment’s leading manufacturers. Xpeng’s Brian Gu told a panel on “The Innovation Boom Coming from China’s Greater Bay Area” at the Milken Institute’s inaugural Global Investors’ Symposium in Hong Kong on Tuesday that smart driving technology will become as “prevalent” as smartphones are today. Meanwhile, BYD’s Stella Li pointed out that even traditional energy firms were investing in battery charging infrastructure. Both firms are based in the Greater Bay Area development zone. “In five years, EVs and these [smart-driving] technologies will be just like [how] iPhones and smartphone technologies are prevalent nowadays,” said Gu, vice-chairman and president of Guangzhou-based Chinese smart EV maker Xpeng.     Almost all EVs will be equipped with smart driving technologies such as autonomous parking and navigation systems by 2029, he said. And by that time, battery-powered vehicles will dominate car sales and superfast charging technology will have greatly shortened the time required for charging EVs, on par with gas stations. Gu’s comments came after Guangzhou-based Xpeng last week reported a 153 per cent increase in its revenue for last year’s fourth quarter, narrowing its net loss by 40 per cent year on year. Moreover, He Xiaopeng, Xpeng’s founder, was bullish about the company’s strategy of developing autonomous driving technology and making it affordable and accessible for “a much broader customer base”. Last year, China, the world’s biggest automotive and EV market, recorded the sales of about 30.1 million cars, of which about 35 per cent were pure battery EVs and plug-in hybrids.     Gu forecast that China’s EV sales will surpass 50 per cent of new car sales in 2024, and touch 80 to 90 per cent in five years. Currently, only about 10 per cent of China’s premium EV models have advanced driving technologies, he said. “We are still far way from robotaxis, and driverless cars will probably take more than five years to be commercialised, but most of the cars in five years will be smart driving cars,” Gu said. Superfast EV battery charging technology will also see rapid development in the next five years, coupled with advancements in battery technologies, he said. “In five years, I think superfast charging of EVs will become the predominant form, and the user experience will be very similar to today’s gas station visit,” Gu added. The wide use of EVs will greatly drive up the demand for charging infrastructure, which will create more opportunities for companies in the charging business, said Li, executive vice-president at Shenzhen-based BYD, the world’s biggest EV maker. Last year, BYD partnered with global oil giant Shell to open the British energy giant’s largest EV charging station globally. Located near the Shenzhen airport, the charging station features 258 public fast-charging points. Rooftop solar panels have been installed to supply clean electricity for charging. The two companies have extended their partnership to overseas markets including Mexico and Brazil, Li said at the event. “I think China built a very good example for every country to learn from,” she said, referring to the Chinese government’s policy support and subsidies at an early stage, which incentivised EV purchases and adoption, and later policies on charging infrastructure deployment. “Once there are more people driving [EVs], then you need more charging stations,” she said. “Even traditional gas companies now are putting a lot of money” into the future of transport, which is EVs, Li added.

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The founder of China’s world-beating battery manufacturer is pressing ahead with expansion in the face of a global slowdown in electric-vehicle sales growth. Contemporary Amperex Technology is not worried about overcapacity, and in fact will crank up output of its more technologically advanced products, said Robin Zeng, president and chairman of the company better known as CATL. In his first interview with an international news outlet since 2020, he said his company has found the solutions to getting battery-charge times down to 10 minutes, and is working on reducing them even further.     “It’s a necessary process,” Zeng said of the dynamics playing out in China’s electric-vehicle industry. “The Chinese EV market, unlike policy-driven overseas markets that are still stuck at low penetration rates, is now market-driven.” Zeng offered his survival of the tech-savviest assessment on Monday from Hong Kong, where he delivered one of the keynotes at a sustainability conference. His view that market forces are taking hold in China is reinforced by the central government doing away with national subsidies at the end of 2022. Around that time, Tesla fired the opening salvo in a price war that has squeezed profit margins for many manufacturers and put others further into the red. “Some companies may fall behind, and naturally there will be consolidation,” Zeng said. CATL supplies batteries to almost every major carmaker, including Tesla, Volkswagen and Toyota. The company based in Ningde, Fujian Province, generated 400.9 billion yuan (US$56 billion) in revenue last year, roughly eight times its 2020 total. While consolidation among electric car manufacturers could lead to a shrinking of battery makers’ customer bases, CATL’s technology development gives Zeng confidence. “There’s not enough production capacity for good products,” he said. “We need more expansion for more advanced technologies and to cater to consumers’ needs, such as faster charging and better battery performance under low temperatures.”     To that end, CATL is working on solutions including more advanced sodium-ion batteries, which have the potential to cost less than lithium-ion cells. While sodium batteries perform “way better” in colder climates, Zeng said, he cautioned that it is difficult to say how quickly they will catch on. CATL has come to dominate the world’s battery market with its cheap but durable cells that use lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, as the cathode material. Lithium-ion chemistries offer superior energy density, enabling drivers to travel further between charges. Zeng has said CATL will compensate for the inferior energy density of sodium-ion by mixing and matching these cells with lithium-ion ones. CATL also has developed a 1,000-kilometre-range battery, and is working on condensed-state cells that it has said could be powerful enough for planes. For all its technological prowess, CATL has not been immune from the EV slowdown. Its market capitalisation has roughly halved from a peak of 1.6 trillion yuan in December 2021. China’s retail sales of new-energy vehicles — which includes hybrids along with fully electric vehicles — almost doubled that year. The rate of expansion is expected to slow from 36 per cent last year to 25 per cent this year, according to China’s Passenger Car Association. While all battery makers are racing to develop technology that gives their cells an edge, CATL’s current dominance looks unassailable. It commands half of the market in China, and is challenging South Korea’s LG Energy Solution for the top spot in the rest of the world. Growing in overseas markets offers a hedge of sorts for CATL, as there is potential for the company to generate better returns away from home. The battery giant’s sales and profit have continued to increase, albeit at slower rates. Net income rose 44 per cent last year to 44.12 billion yuan, beating estimates. CATL has been benefiting lately from lower prices of key inputs. The spot price of lithium carbonate in China — a crucial raw material for EV batteries — has dropped around 84 per cent from a peak in November 2022. Nickel has also been on a wild ride, with oversupply precipitating a more than 60 per cent decline in prices from their 2022 peak. Zeng, 56, founded CATL in 2011, a time when policymakers in China were making electric vehicles a national development priority. The company went public in 2018, and its success has made Zeng, who has a doctorate in condensed matter physics, a billionaire many times over. His net worth is around US$27.2 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. While Shenzhen-listed CATL is well-capitalised, Zeng said it is considering a secondary listing in Hong Kong to enable some of its partners to invest in the company. Perhaps the darkest cloud on the horizon for CATL is geopolitics. The US is pushing back against companies led by CATL and China’s top EV maker BYD over their grip on the electric vehicle supply chain. The Inflation Reduction Act — President Joe Biden’s signature climate law — contained some US$370 billion in provisions to support new domestic solar, battery and EV factories. The European Union has launched an investigation into China subsidising its EV industry that looks poised to lead to additional tariffs being levied later this year. Zeng said CATL has relationships with trusted partners that will transcend political disturbances. He downplayed the threat posed by the Inflation Reduction Act, saying it only offers temporary protection to the US auto industry, and likened the US election this year to an entertaining film. “Unfortunately, I don’t have much time for amusement shows,” Zeng said. “I need to focus on technology.

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